Economic
Spatial Analysis
To further analyze this dynamic in Savannah, we chose the three following maps: Percentage of All Businesses by Neighborhood, which will serve as a proxy for small businesses, with darker gray areas having a denser concentration; Projected Flooding 5ft Above High Tide, projected to happen at least once by the year 2080 assuming a medium rise in sea levels due to the effects of climate change (Surging Seas, 2016), and represented by seagreen colored areas; Increased/Decreased Need for Flood Insurance, which will also highlight areas where flood insurance will be needed and businesses may be vulnerable, represented by red/blue areas respectively. We chose these with the objective to uncover potential climate-related flood vulnerabilities in Savannah that would have a major negative impact on the vitality of local businesses.
Figure 1. Map of the City of Savannah with highlighted areas of analysis.
The map above exhibits the overlap between the locations of business (the dark grey areas have over 2.5% of the businesses of Savannah within their area), the areas vulnerable to flooding five feet above high tide (indicated by seagreen), and the decreased (blue) or increased (red) trend in need for flood insurance on a year by year basis.
Areas of dark grey, overlapped with the seagreen indicate an area where businesses will face a projected 5 foot rise in sea level. The presence of veneers of red and blue areas within these same dark grey areas indicates whether these businesses will have an increased or decreased flood insurance need, respectively. A focus on the red areas and seagreen areas within the dark grey areas where businesses agglomerate, will serve as an aid to identify this vulnerability. A detailed analysis of each area, along with their identified issues, can be found in the following section.
Problems Identified
Taking into account the issues highlighted by the selected maps and their relationships, areas of high business density within the city of Savannah are experiencing varying degrees of flooding risk. We’ll be analyzing each area, highlighted by a distinctly colored circle in Figure 1, to identify the sources of their vulnerabilities.
Figure 2 showcases our first area of analysis, the neighborhoods in the Historic District (purple circle in Figure 1), with a distinct strip of red by the areas close to the Savannah River. This indicates an increasing need for flood insurance for businesses close to the river, putting those businesses without proper insurance in a vulnerable position for flood related issues. It is important to also note the compounded effect of rising sea levels and fluvial(river) flooding as an added risk, a factor often unaccounted for in flood hazard assessments(Moftakhari, 2017). The resulting impact from both hazards interacting will result in an aggravated risk area impacting businesses in the river’s vicinity.
Figure 2. Historic District Neighborhood Area (with & without business percentages)
Our second area of analysis are the neighborhoods of Oakdale, Avalon/Oglethorpe, Highland Park, Chippewa, and Oakhurst; all of them shown in Figure 3 and circled in orange in Figure 1. We can identify a significant overlap of the dark grey areas of business agglomeration with the seagreen of projected 5ft rise to the right side of the Highland Park neighborhood, while also presenting strips of red for increased flood insurance need. Oakhurst, Oglethorpe, and upper Oakdale also exhibit noteworthy red areas while having seagreen areas in their immediate vicinity. In contrast with the first area, which has fluvial flooding as the main problem, this area will have to deal with compounded pluvial (rainfall) flooding issues. Rising sea levels, storm surges, and heavy precipitation as a result of climate change will exacerbate pluvial flooding issues present in the area (Bevacqua, 2019). Businesses within the mentioned areas will have to take precautions against these flooding scenarios.
Figure 3. Oakdale, Avalon/Oglethorpe, Highland Park, Chippewa, Oakhurst Neighborhoods Area (with & without business percentages).
The last area of analysis are the Wilshire and Windsor Forest neighborhoods(Figure 4). We can identify Wilshire as having the highest agglomeration of businesses in this area, with few red areas within and no seagreen areas overlapped, indicating a low immediate flooding risk. However, it is important to note a substantial amount of those areas in the immediate vicinity present significant seagreen and red area overlaps. With rising sea levels exacerbating floodplains and reducing drainage efficiency, as described in a Southeast China study, there is a risk of these neighbouring issues extending into the area with high business concentrations(Griffiths, 2019).
Figure 4. Wilshire and Windsor Forest Neighborhoods Area (with & without business percentages).
Actions by the City of Savannah
Anticipating the effects of climate change, such as rising seas, the city of Savannah has implemented an array of policies, projects, and chapters of government to help the community prosper through future change. For starters, the Savannah chapter known as SCORE describes themselves as “Counselors to America’s Small Business”. They offer free business mentoring and counseling to the small business community (Seigal, 2018).
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In relation to flooding, property owners in flood-prone areas of Savannah receive a 25 percent discount on their federal flood insurance though FEMA’s Community Rating System, which rewards efforts by local governments to improve their floodplain management (Landers, 2018) Furthermore, The Chatham County–Savannah Metropolitan Planning Commission has proposed retrofitting bridges with deeper foundations in Savannah and, in the long term, to elevate new bridges and dig deeper foundations for infrastructure and buildings so that it may better withstand flooding (U., 2016).
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In combination with these measures, the Smart Sea Level project is working to monitor the water levels across Chatham County, the project's stated goal is to “provide real-time information about water levels across Chatham County to aid in emergency planning and response during episodes of flooding associated with storms, king tides, and other environmental events. The sea level data also provide a unique and important dataset to aid scientists, engineers, and regional planners in quantifying the short- and long-term risks associated with continued sea level rise”(Smart Sea Level Sensors, 2019).
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Additionally, the City of Savannah has the ongoing “Green Infrastructure to Green Jobs’” Initiative, a program that forms an advisory committee of community leaders to create three urban tree nurseries on over 350 underutilized flood-prone FEMA lots (Kenworthy, 2018). The initiative will provide unemployed and underemployed Savannah residents with comprehensive classroom and hands-on landscape training apprenticeships, with the goal for them to become a Georgia Certified Landscape Professional, a certification held by only ~400 people in the state. With coastal Georgia experiencing extreme weathers, as well as Savannah’s tree canopy having withstood significant damage from recent hurricanes, this green infrastructure project will serve to improve the city’s resilience while allowing community members to engage in initiatives that benefit them and allow them to take ownership of their communities (SSDNl, 2019).
Actions by Other Cities
Other coastal cities can be used as a blueprint on how to work with climate change. New York City, for example, has successfully developed and begun to implement multiple flood resilience plans to strengthen its coastal protection against rising sea levels. The BIG U proposal was created to secure and protect Lower Manhattan from the impacts of changing climate such as increased floodwater and storms. The first phases of the project are being implemented as the East Coastal Resiliency (ESCR) Project and the Lower Manhattan Coastal Resiliency (LMCR) projects. East River Park is being developed under the ESCR Project while the LMCR project is being implemented in two separate parts from Montgomery Street to the Battery (Chester, A., Sasson, I., Ovink, H., Klinenberg, E., & Lawton, J. , 2019).
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The East Side Coastal Resiliency (ESCR) Project was approved in November of 2019, and consists of $1.45 billion to raise East River Park 8 to 10 feet above sea level. Apart from potentially life-saving protection from flooding, it will also offer increased pedestrian connections across and around the East River on grade bridges. The LMCR Project will consist of an area that spans the Lower Manhattan coast, working to increase resilience to flooding while at the same time preserving access to the water and providing ample public space. Through this overarching BIG U plan, New York City is working to safeguard critical infrastructure and services, bolster the protection of neighbourhoods, and upgrade buildings to better withstand flooding and hurricanes (C4 Cities, 2019).
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New Orleans has created a Coastal Master Plan that includes 124 projects that are building or maintaining over 800 square miles of land. These projects are expected to reduce damage by $8.3 billion annually by year 50, which pays for itself three times over, equaling to more than $150 billion saved over the next 50 years (Baker et. al., 2017). New Orleans is appointing a “chief resilience officer” to help integrate the decision making of state agencies with the state’s coastal Master Plan (Schleifsten, 2020). Further, it was announced recently that the state will put $115 million from expected state surplus and $120 million from federal offshore oil and gas revenue into the coastal trust fund. This money will be used towards coastal restoration and flood protection. Levee and flood control improvements will be implemented in four key places along the coastline (Schleifsten, 2020).